The San Francisco Chronicle’s website has just published an article which demonstrates how important it is to get everyone registered and voting (h/t this article at Sepia Mutiny). Basically, a new study shows that California’s growing diversity is not showing up at the ballot box; those doing the voting are predominantly more likely to be white and more well off than those who are not voting.
Why is this important?
It is important because it shows that the views of those who vote are vastly different from those who don’t.
Further, the plans and priorities of the Californians most likely to vote and those of the nearly 50 percent of adults who don’t participate in elections are as different as their bank accounts and racial backgrounds, said Mark Baldassare, a pollster who conducted the study released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California.
“About 15 percent of adult people make the decisions, and that 15 percent doesn’t look much like California overall,” he said. “And that’s even more problematic here because so much public policy is made at the ballot box via initiatives.”
The study is based on a survey of adults conducted between May ‘05 and May ‘06, and it shows a large gap between the views of those who vote and the concerns of the nonvoters. The articly specifically talks about taxes and government-provided services:
Take the issue of taxes, for example. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and his Republican allies in the Legislature argue incessantly that Californians are adamantly opposed to new or increased taxes.
A poll last May showed that when likely voters were asked whether they would prefer higher taxes and more services or lower taxes and fewer state services, they split on the issue — 49 percent favored more services, and 44 percent called for lower taxes.
But Californians not registered to vote have far different views. More than two-thirds of those residents welcomed higher taxes and more services, while less than 30 percent called for less government.
One might ask what the breakdown in race/ethnicity and age is among the voters and nonvoters.
While whites make up about 46 percent of California’s population, they are nearly three-quarters of the state’s likely voters. Although Latinos are 32 percent of the population, they make up only about 14 percent of the likely voters and 63 percent of those not registered to vote.
But ethnicity isn’t the only area in which likely voters are far different from the rest of California’s population. Among the most frequent voters, 62 percent are ages 45 or older, 77 percent are homeowners, 53 percent are college graduates, and 53 percent have household incomes of $60,000 or more.
That’s in a state where 76 percent of the people are younger than forty-five, 66 percent are renters, 17 percent finished college and 18 percent earn $60,000 or more.
The article closes with a great quote (Baldassare is Mark Baldassare, the author of the study):
Although the sheer number of nonvoters can push public opinion in California, their lack of clout at the ballot box — and with the politicians who need votes to stay in office — means the views of a very different group become law in the state…
But nothing will happen unless California’s leaders recognize the danger of relying on an electorate that doesn’t represent all the people in the state, [Baldassare] added.
“The question is whether we sit back and wait for something to happen,” he said. “It really depends on what type of government we want to have.”
I was amazed at the result of the study, although maybe I shouldn’t have been. While the racial disparity among voters and nonvoters may be exacerbated in California due to our large minority population, I’m guessing this situation (where those who vote and whose votes end up deciding elections/policy have views vastly differing from a large number of the people whom the elections and policies affect) is actually more common across the country as well, especially since one of the most dramatic lines between voters and nonvoters was age! I don’t know that I’ve ever seen these ideas encapsulated in such a hard-hitting way before. As one of the commentators at Sepia Mutiny says in his analysis of the article:
If the people all turn out to vote then conservative economic principles get crushed. In America this is strongly tied to race. If Latino and African American (and possibly Asian American) voters turn out, then we might be (as a nation) guided by a completely different set of economic principles, including perhaps a different healthcare system.
The article really just drives home the point about how important it is to get EVERYONE who is eligible registered to vote and then actually out to vote on Election Day, not just across racial/ethnic boundaries, but across age and income boundaries as well. It is clear that we progressives have our work cut out for us in this regard, and as much work as has been done, much, much more still needs to be done.
